The readings our theses are held to. Public series are reproduced from their sources; our own constructions and model outputs are marked. Where a piece named a threshold, it is drawn on the chart, and the status says which side of it the latest reading sits. Regulatory gates are kept separately in the permissions tracker.
FY2026 is $1,051.754bn of net interest over $5,403.327bn of receipts. It describes a budget burden, not a central bank running out of permission to act.
The projection is CBO's native path, not ours. The piece's own scenarios through 2032 are scored against it, not instead of it.
An average is not a refinancing calendar. Evidence against building urgency from a compressed maturity profile, not evidence that financing risk disappears. Series begins with this reading; the source's native history is not reproduced.
High on its valid sample. Neither dates a crash nor proves passive causation. Percentile lines are computed by us from the same 1,750 valid months.
A proxy for the rate cushion, not a DCF verdict. It does not rule out explanations based on expected growth or how real yields are measured.
A proxy, not S&P 500 equal weight. Relative performance does not establish passive causation.
Ownership does not measure trading or price setting. Integer-rounded as published.
The tracker is a proxy for the index. The 1965 point is a separate construction and is drawn as a reference, not spliced.
Thresholds from metric M01. The joint recipe affords about $206/kg of launch at $150 power; $87 or less removes the modeled scarcity premium.
Metric M10. The posted reference is a maximum-payload sheet price, not a reusable Starship invoice for a compute mission. The 2018-dollar launch history lives in the piece, on its own basis.
Metric M11. Proposed 100/456-launch phases are under review, not authorizations. Adding envelopes across sites doesn't create licensed flights.
Metric M04. The assumed $5,000 and its proposed cut to $1,000 are the load-bearing hardware assumption; an 80% decline needs about 148× cumulative production at 20% learning.
The most orbit could pay for launch and still match the ground. A negative value means the non-launch costs already exceed the ground bill.
Producer classification does not tell us who paid. Carried as context for where additional output could come from.
A published series reproduced as published, with the source and its vintage. Revisions are taken as the source issues them.
Built by us from public inputs by arithmetic shown in the piece: a ratio, a rolling window, an issuer share. Inputs are named in the source line.
An output of our own model, or an input to it that no one has yet measured. Hollow markers are model inputs, not observations.
FY2026 is $1,051.754bn of net interest over $5,403.327bn of receipts. It describes a budget burden, not a central bank running out of permission to act.
The projection is CBO's native path, not ours. The piece's own scenarios through 2032 are scored against it, not instead of it.
An average is not a refinancing calendar. Evidence against building urgency from a compressed maturity profile, not evidence that financing risk disappears. Series begins with this reading; the source's native history is not reproduced.
High on its valid sample. Neither dates a crash nor proves passive causation. Percentile lines are computed by us from the same 1,750 valid months.
A proxy for the rate cushion, not a DCF verdict. It does not rule out explanations based on expected growth or how real yields are measured.
A proxy, not S&P 500 equal weight. Relative performance does not establish passive causation.
Ownership does not measure trading or price setting. Integer-rounded as published.
The tracker is a proxy for the index. The 1965 point is a separate construction and is drawn as a reference, not spliced.
Thresholds from metric M01. The joint recipe affords about $206/kg of launch at $150 power; $87 or less removes the modeled scarcity premium.
Metric M10. The posted reference is a maximum-payload sheet price, not a reusable Starship invoice for a compute mission. The 2018-dollar launch history lives in the piece, on its own basis.
Metric M11. Proposed 100/456-launch phases are under review, not authorizations. Adding envelopes across sites doesn't create licensed flights.
Metric M04. The assumed $5,000 and its proposed cut to $1,000 are the load-bearing hardware assumption; an 80% decline needs about 148× cumulative production at 20% learning.
The most orbit could pay for launch and still match the ground. A negative value means the non-launch costs already exceed the ground bill.
Producer classification does not tell us who paid. Carried as context for where additional output could come from.
A published series reproduced as published, with the source and its vintage. Revisions are taken as the source issues them.
Built by us from public inputs by arithmetic shown in the piece: a ratio, a rolling window, an issuer share. Inputs are named in the source line.
An output of our own model, or an input to it that no one has yet measured. Hollow markers are model inputs, not observations.