Research
Everything on the board, as a list or laid out on the horizon each thesis will be tested against. Pieces in progress list the question being worked, not a conclusion.
All
Economics
Technology
Geopolitics
Published
3
Nov 6, 2026
Technology
What a free rocket wouldn’t fix
Launch isn’t today’s bottleneck. Even a free ride doesn’t close the gap under this accounting; the bull case needs hardware and IT costs to fall with scale while ground power stays scarce.
Orbital compute
Energy
Interactive model
Nov 6, 2026
Economics
Growth or Grind
Net interest took 19.5% of federal receipts in FY2026. Cheaper work shrinks that burden only where a real resource saving becomes taxable domestic income, and only if someone keeps the gain.
Fiscal
Debt dynamics
Historical overlays
Nov 7, 2026
Markets
When the Price Becomes the Argument
Persistent valuation-insensitive inflows can push a concentrated market past plausible cash-flow assumptions when counterparty capacity is limited, and the gains reinforce the exposures that magnify losses if conditions reverse.
Market structure
Passive flows
Twelve exhibits
In progress
4
Working
Geopolitics
Chokepoints and the price of a detour
The question being worked: what does a closed strait actually cost, and who pays it, when the historical episodes are laid side by side?
Trade routes
Historical overlays
Working
Technology
The robot on the balance sheet
The question being worked: at what unit cost and utilization does a general-purpose robot change a firm’s labor line, and which firms would show it first?
Robotics
Unit economics
Working
Geopolitics
Export controls as an industrial policy
The question being worked: when a control regime changes, where does the capacity it blocks actually get built, and on what timeline?
Semiconductors
Policy
Working
Economics
What the term premium is actually pricing
The question being worked: how much of the long end is supply, how much is inflation uncertainty, and how would we tell the difference in real time?
Rates
Decomposition
On the horizon
Each thesis laid against the years it will be tested in. Bars are the stated scenario horizon or monitoring window; dots are the dated falsifiers from the piece. Hover a dot to read the test.
Themes
Economics
3
Technology
2
Geopolitics
2
Series
Library