Permissions

The regulatory gates our theses depend on, each at its actual legal stage. An environmental envelope, a conditional decision, an authorization and a completed flight are different entries on this register, and adding them together does not produce licensed capacity.

9gates tracked
2authorized
3under review
2paused
2target or announced
Domain
Stage
Launch4

Starbase, Texas: annual launch authorization

FAA, Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Authorized: 25 launches a year. 100/456 proposed, under review.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
25 currently authorized Starbase launches annually, per the October 14, 2026 notice. The November 4 portal filing proposes 100 and 456 annual launches in phases; the comment period was extended to December 7, 2026.Does not establish: proposed phases are not authorizations; landing caps count returns from other sites.
Oct 14, 2026 notice · Nov 4, 2026 portal · comments to Dec 7, 2026

KSC LC-39A, Florida: environmental review

FAA Record of Decision, January 23, 2026; page updated January 30, 2026
Environmental review complete; vehicle license not verified.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The final EIS and Record of Decision analyze up to 44 launches and 88 landings a year. The decision states explicitly that completing environmental review does not guarantee issuance of a vehicle license; safety, risk and financial-responsibility determinations remain.Does not establish: a vehicle authorization. No newly issued LC-39A authorization was verified in the November 5 check.
Jan 23, 2026 ROD · Jan 30, 2026 page update · checked Nov 5, 2026

SLC-37, Florida: conditional launch case

Department of the Air Force Record of Decision, 2025; FAA supplemental environmental analysis
Conditional: 76 launches pending FAA supplemental analysis.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The 2025 DAF decision allows construction and pre-launch activity and conditionally 76 launches and 152 landings pending FAA supplemental analysis and a follow-on DAF decision. The FAA SEIS commenced September 29; comments closed October 14, 2026. A modified vehicle license is still required. Construction has begun.Does not establish: 76 unconditional licensed launches. Adding 25, 44 and 76 does not make 145 licensed flights.
Sep 29, 2026 SEIS commenced · Oct 14, 2026 comments closed · page updated Oct 15, 2026

Louisiana launch site: project review and operating permissions

FAA; FCC operating grants
Announced; no application reported.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
SpaceX's announced Louisiana project still needs its own review and operating permissions. An October 28 report quoting the FAA said no application had been submitted; that is a single-source status check. Later FCC and Louisiana dispositions are unverified.Does not establish: a route to orbit. The 2027 test does not require a Louisiana operating license, but it does require the construction, financing and review record.
Oct 28, 2026 report, single source · checked Nov 5, 2026
Data-center power3

Texas: environmental permits for data-center infrastructure

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, letter responding to the Governor's directive
Paused: permit processing halted for a class of applications.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The October 19, 2026 letter confirms a permit pause for infrastructure directly supporting data centers, alongside an electronic-permitting notice. An anticipated mid-November functionality update is not an announced end to the underlying pause; no rescission was established in the check.Does not establish: a construction ban, and not a statement about the grid. ERCOT's large-load energization process is a separate track.
Oct 19, 2026 letter · functionality update expected mid-Nov 2026

New York: temporary moratorium on large data-center permits

Executive Order 62, July 14, 2026; Department of Environmental Conservation
Paused: certain DEC permits on hold for sites of 50 MW or more.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The order puts certain DEC permits on hold for data centers that can consume at least 50 MW, unless the application was already deemed complete or an exemption applies, while the state develops screens. Local permissions follow different treatment.Does not establish: a nationwide construction ban, and not a measure of capacity withdrawn.
Jul 14, 2026 order · checked Nov 5, 2026

ERCOT: large-load energization process

ERCOT, Batch Zero update, September 11, 2026
Under review: energization audit and provisional batch classification.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The update describes an energization audit and pause with provisional batch classifications for large loads. It concerns the grid connection, not environmental permitting, and it does not convert interconnection requests into firm supply.Does not establish: a queue collapse. July's 474 GW of requests and November's 177 GW response population come from different exercises and cannot be subtracted.
Sep 11, 2026 Batch Zero update · Jul 29, 2026 presentation: ~474 GW of requests
New generation2

Kemmerer, Wyoming: Natrium construction permit

Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Construction authorized; operation not authorized.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
The construction permit issued March 9, 2026 authorizes construction. Operating permission, grid connection, fuel supply, financing and actual output are separate steps and are not reconciled by the permit.Does not establish: megawatt-hours. A construction permit is a permission to build, not a delivery date.
Mar 9, 2026 permit · reviewed Mar 10, 2026 · carried Nov 6, 2026

DOE UPRISE: identified capacity and 2029 goal

Department of Energy fact sheet, October 27, 2026
Target: 5 GW by 2029; 4.7 GW identified as potential.
AnnouncedApplicationReviewAuthorizedOperating
4.7 GW of identified potential capacity and an agency goal of 5 GW by 2029. Unit reconciliation, preservation and retirements are unresolved, and the goal is not an additive project stage.Does not establish: operating additions or delivered capacity.
Oct 27, 2026 fact sheet · carried Nov 6, 2026

Stages on the ladder: announced, application, review, authorized, operating. A paused rung means a permitting authority has stopped processing a class of application; a target is an agency goal, not a permission. Every row names what the document does not establish, because that is where the arithmetic usually goes wrong.